MODELING THE SPREAD OF EBOLA 1. Summary Ebola is a rare and deadly disease caused by infection with a strain of Ebola

Ebola is a rare and deadly disease caused by infection with a strain of Ebola virus. The current 2014 Ebola epidemic outbreak in West Africa (first cases notified in March 2014) is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness, which is often fatal if untreated. Thus, it is important to give an epidemic model that considers not only the spread of the disease, but also possible feasible delivery system, speed of manufacturing of the vaccine or drug for Ebola so that we can optimize the eradication of Ebola. We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone and Guinea to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola. We model the course of the outbreaks and the spread of the disease via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model to predict the future scenario without any intervention. Using this method we find out that without any intervention, the Ebola will eventually be out of control, any individuals in S, E, I categories will eventually goes to R category. After that we propose three approaches to optimize the eradication of Ebola: Vaccination intervention , Quarantine intervention, and Delivery system optimization. We simulate the vaccination intervention in assortative and proportionate mixing patterns. We simulate the vaccination intervention in assortative and proportionate mixing patterns, and compare the results for different vaccination rate. For quarantine intervention, we apply graph model to figure out the rate of contact between people. Based on that, we estimate the optimal number of people we need to remove to prevent the disease from spreading due to person-to-person interaction. In conclusion, the spread of Ebola is disastrous but it can be well controlled. The three methods we developed tested across Liberia and Sierra Leone, and we got different reasonable simulation results. The current 2014 Ebola epidemic outbreak in West Africa (first cases notified in March 2014) is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. Thus, it is important to give an epidemic model that considers not only the spread of the disease, but also possible feasible delivery system, speed of manufacturing of the vaccine or drug for Ebola so that we can optimize the eradication of Ebola. We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone …